We've all heard about the miraculously accurate predictions Paul the octopus oracle made about FIFA World Cup matches. 'Paul must possess a supernatural power!' The believers cried out. 'The chances of that happening by pure chance is one in 256!!'
What if Paul's "predictions" were made neither by chance or supernatural clairvoyance? …
Paul's "predictions" were made when it moved over to one of the two national flags given by the researchers. Flags, not cards with country's names were on. We all saw that on TV and Internet.
I wonder how many people have noticed the prominent colour in all the flags Paul went for was RED?
See it for yourself (Screenshots from official FIFA site. Click on image to go to the source page)
In the group stage, Germany, sporting a red horizontal stripe in the middle of its flag, played Ghana and Serbia, either of which had a national flag with horizontal red stripe at top. So you could say that was a twenty-five to seventy-five chance that the octopus got those two matches right. But in all other fixtures, Paul went for more red.
Of course, the deciding factor may not be the colour itself, but colour combination or pattern arrangement (such as horizontal stripes vs one general colour). It would be interesting to know how colour-blind or colour-sensitive octopus is. Do they see red, yellow, green or blue?
No matter what might have drawn the hapless Paul to the winning flag, I bet it was not a supernatural power.
By the way, you know who went home from that World Cup without losing a game? New Zealand. 😀
[Update: 22:13 16 July (UTC)]
I've known for some time octopus species are intelligent and used in neuroscience and behavioural science for studies of memory formation and learning(1,2).
Since publishing this blog article, I've done a bit more digging. Apparently the prominent scientists in this area (3) used red object in their studies, because red is the colour of crabs octopus hunts for food. I could not get access to the exact scholarly publication that could confirm their methodology, but found a YouTube video (!!) showing a scene of experiment, with another user's comment stating who conducted the experiment.
I'd have liked more credible source, but at the moment, this is best I can get. I'll keep looking.
1: Observational Learning in Octopus vulgaris
2: The Octopus: A Model for a Comparative Analysis of the Evolution of Learning and Memory Mechanisms
3: A Learning and Memory Area in the Octopus Brain Manifests a Vertebrate-Like Long-Term Potentiation
Interesting theory about the Octopus' choice of flags.I'm not a soccer/football fan, so I didn't follow the games myself. But even I have learned to hate vuvuzelas. :irked:
Gosh, you are quick, Deb!I don't really fancy soccer myself. I only followed this time round because NZ had made into the finals. However I'm a self confessed rugby buff. You'll see some rugby related posts next year when IRB rugby world cup is on in NZ.[addendum]By the way vuvuzela (or any kind of loud horns) is banned in NZ stadiums, which is lucky, because rugby players need to communicate with each other.
Wow, You have learned something that may not cross in my mind about it. It is very interesting and There must be a research about it and I think it will find out what happened to Paul when He climbed up on one of the flags given….
:hi: Thanks for stopping by, Teresia. This is just my personal observation and opinion. There may be even more unexpected finding about working of Paul's oracle. It may be that the red ink in the flags tasted better for him 🙂
Welcome, Mimi. 😆 … So paul is hungry…I think if there is a scientific research on this case, It will be better…at least peolpe will learn something before relying on paul's prediction
I'm sure the laboratory that has Paul will gather a lot more study funding from now on. 😀
🙂 I don't think so usually such kind of octopus will only live about 4 or 5 years …
😆 yeah … of course it could have been the color … but as we all know and Shakespeare said: "There are more things between heaven and earth …" … I truly believe in a good media hype … but whether the octopus was right or just a good fake … I really don't know …people seemed to like it anyway … 'though I got no TV, I never watched … I just put it on my blog because of my brother in law mentioned it … 😉
Yes! He is already counting the age of paul. Will it be still alive for European League.:)
Ah… pity he is… No other Paul? or Pity my brother…:whistle:
pity your brother will be … how can anyone eat an octopus :p
People see what they want to see. :p.
Thank for your comment, dirk. :)I don't think Paul was fake. Octopus is considered very intelligent for non-vertebral animal. And what Paul did was genuine and extremely remarkable. He somehow knew he was supposed to chose between the two flags given, didn't he? He could have just swam over the corner and curled up, but instead he obliged and made his selection every time. A remarkable commitment for someone with no spine, I'd say. 😀 Originally posted by There2ia:
I saw on local news the lab that has Paul would not do any more "predictions". So he's apparently retired.Originally posted by qlue:
RED! :PThanks for your comment, Mad Scientist. 🙂
I've just updated the article with some citations. 🙂
Just been watching the second rugby test match between NZ and South Africa at my rugby mad friend's place. Final score All Blacks 31 – Spring Boks 17 !!Another great performance from the All Blacks. The ABs are in such an awesome form right now, just thinking about the next match makes me feel excited! :yes:
Hello Mimi, That is nice that you have a nice day to enjoy. Watching Rugby! I am not familliar with this sport.
:faint: Oh no !!! What I like in women is that there are not fan of soccer, and sometimes not rugby …. But you are both !!! :sst: Very useful when France is bad …
Originally posted by mimi_s_mum:
127 millions, living on an island … J…. :ninja: !! But it didn't bring anything !
Thanks, Teresia. It was an awesome match and I totally enjoyed it. :)I'm not a fan of soccer at all, Olivier. Compared to top level rugby, soccer is boring. Top level rugby does not need superficial hype such as this or the vuvuzelas to be exciting. And you should watch what you say about NZ female rugby fans. We don't blindly cheer the local team. We actually understand rules, know the players and give due respect when the opposing team played well. It's not just about who wins, but who plays better. Originally posted by arduinna:
:confused:
Originally posted by arduinna:
You mean DPR Korea?Originally posted by arduinna:
The point of my post was the octopus did not help anyone. He did not picked winner. He went for red, which presumably the colour of their typical food.
Originally posted by mimi_s_mum:
In South-West of France rugby is more practiced than soccer and also more repected.Originally posted by mimi_s_mum:
Well Japan, of course, with their RED flag … and the octopus didn't help them so much !!
Originally posted by mimi_s_mum:
No Japan with their red flag :
If Paul had been made to predict this pool, I don't think his "prediction" would've been so accurate. He'd probably failed to make it to media, and we would not know about Paul at all. 😉
Originally posted by darkesthour:
Hmm. The lab that had Paul fixed the whole tournament to get funding?
It was a fix I reckon
Probably, using huge bribes of octopus meat :chef: :yikes:
That's what I meant. It never occurred to me you meant to use octopus meat as bribe, though. Maybe threat? 'If you refuse to lose to Germany, we'll send your home a kilo of octopus meat every day for the rest of your life.' 😀
Some people like octopus meat… :chef:
Oh, I thought by fixing the tournament you meant bribing all the teams… 😀
Originally posted by darkesthour:
:yikes:Maybe crab meat? Or an attractive female octopus?
Not the entire team, surely. Personally I prefer squid to octopus. Great eating as fresh sashimi. Grilled is also good. :chef:
By the way, another great match from the All Blacks last weekend. Fast, exciting, entertaining, intense and powerful. Australia played staunchly and never gave up to their credit. Wonderful match :yes:Better go. Need to sort out dinner. Bye for now. 🙂
I cant wait until the lions come back…
Originally posted by darkesthour:
That'd be long time away, wouldn't it? I think their next tour is 2013 to Australia. Next NZ tour would be what, 2017?Patient must be one of the virtues of Hertfordshire folks. :cheers:
Is it really that long :awww: